What a comeback teaches us about game context.
Post Game Report (Interactive)
Scoreboard: the football icon reflects the team on offense. Play Details: shows Play # and Win Probability at the beginning of the play (i.e. pre-snap); Play Execution shows Play Type, WP +/- (i.e. win probability gain/loss) and YDS +/- (i.e. yards gained/lost) at the end of the play. Line Chart: shows win probability over the course of the game. Big Play markers: outlined circles identify plays where win probability changed by 5% or more. Note: All Win Probability values are from the St. Thomas More perspective, while YDS +/- is always from the perspective of the team on offense.
“Punt and play defense” isn’t inherently old-school or wrong and going for it on 4th down isn’t inherently new-school or “analytically correct.”
The right decision depends on game context: score, time remaining, field position, down & distance, timeouts, opponent matchup, etc. And Friday’s game between Louisiana powerhouses – St. Thomas More vs Catholic BR – is a great example of this concept.
Trailing by 14 points in the 4th quarter (play #174), STM went on to win, resulting in a Post Game Report that illustrates how context changes the value of everything.
A 16-yard gain in the 1st quarter (play #6) increased STM’s win probability by +7.0%. A 16-yard gain late in the 4th quarter (play #175) increased it by just +0.2%.
Same 16 yards. Very different value.
Why? Because at that point in the game, yards weren’t STM’s biggest constraint. Time and possessions were – and they were running out of both.
After STM scored a touchdown and converted the PAT (plays #187–188), an onside-kick recovery (play #189) more than doubled their win probability, from 5.2% to 12.3%. It also solved their most immediate problem: STM needed another possession.
After the onside recovery STM went on to score another touchdown with three seconds remaining, making it 41–42 and raising their win probability to 31.8%.
Trailing by one, STM elected to go for two and the win.
CBR understandably used its final timeout to get a look at STM’s 2-PAT personnel and alignment. Interestingly, the updated game state reflecting CBR having no timeouts remaining, increased STM’s win probability by +11.8%, from 31.8% to 43.6% – without a play being run.
STM converted the two-point attempt and took a 43–42 lead. And time expired on the ensuing kickoff.
The point here isn’t that coaches should calculate all of this during a game. They shouldn’t.
Football decisions are complex because context matters. The right process and tools help remove some of that uncertainty. As a staff, pre-align on how you’ll handle different situations. Then build those decisions into your practice and game plans.
You don’t need more information on Friday night. You need the right information, discussed and practiced ahead of time, so you’re prepared when the moment arrives.
If you want to see one of your games through this lens, reach out. All I need is a play-by-play file.