Most Important Stats...
I’m often asked, “What are the most important stats?”
And my answer is, “It depends…”
If you simply want to know “what happened?”, some useful traditional metrics are turnovers, big plays, and 3rd-down conversion rates.
But the most successful coaches I’ve been around also ask, “What stats are driving OUR ability to win games?”
The answer to that is different and unique to each team and each game because context matters.
Here are two good examples from high school games on Friday night.
In the first game, the same offense committed two turnovers. One cost them -9.9% in Win Probability. The other cost them -24.5% in Win Probability.
Both get recorded as a turnover – but they clearly didn’t have the same impact in terms of winning the game.
In another game, an offense gained 15 yards on one play and 5 yards on another.
The 15-yard gain, in the 2nd quarter, was worth +4.7% in Win Probability. The 5-yard gain, in the 4th quarter on 4th & 2 in the red zone, was worth +5.6% in Win Probability.
We’d traditionally consider the 15-yard gain the more significant “big” play – but through the lens of impact on winning the game, the 5-yard gain was actually more valuable.
That’s the advantage of adding context. Score. Clock. Down. Distance. Field position. Timeouts. Matchup. They all matter.
Instead of simply asking what happened on a play, the goal is to understand what is driving your team’s chances of winning.
And then apply that perspective to practice and game plans.