Analytics don't replace coaching

There’s a misconception out there that analytics replace coaching.

They don’t. At least, they shouldn’t.

The best use of analytics isn’t to tell coaches what to do. It’s to help coaches understand the decision in front of them – and, ideally, things they wouldn’t have seen otherwise.

Think about analytics in three places:
Before the game – Use analytics to inform practice priorities and situational strategies, and align as a staff on how you’ll communicate and handle those situations during the game.
During the game – Use analytics for proactive context in high-pressure moments.
After the game – Use analytics to better understand what happened.

Here’s a simple example of what that can look like during a game.

Consider this scenario: Q2 9:12 | 1st & 10 | Opponent 10-yd line | Score tied 7-7

This forecast is generated on 1st down and gives the coaching staff context for potential 4th down decisions.

In this example…

  • The bars are color-coded by recommended 4th down decision (Green = Go, Yellow = Attempt FG, Red = Punt).
  • The number above each bar is the Decision Edge – the difference in win probability between the recommended decision and the next-best option. The larger the number the stronger the recommendation.

But here’s where coaching comes in.

Analytics don’t know your philosophy, your confidence in your offense, defense, and special teams at this moment, what you’ve practiced, or your risk tolerance.

As a result, three staffs can correctly operationalize this exact same context differently, based on their specific decision edge threshold:

  • 5%+ threshold → GO on 4th & 1
  • 2%+ threshold → GO on 4th & 3 or less
  • No threshold → GO on 4th & 7 or less

Same analytics. Different coaching decisions.

And that’s not a problem. It’s the point.

There isn’t a universal “correct” threshold.

Analytics provide the context. Coaches decide how to use it.

It’s about giving coaches better information to coach with, not replacing coaching.

If there’s a game situation where you’d like to see what better decision context looks like, I’d be happy to take a look.

AJ

aj@varsity-ai.com