Special Teams: Beyond the Box Score

Sometimes the biggest moments in a football game don’t come from offense or defense – they come from special teams.

In the Texas matchup between North Shore and Summer Creek, the two largest win-probability swings of the game are great examples.

Post Game Report (Interactive)
Scoreboard: the football icon reflects the team on offense. Play Details: shows Play # and Win Probability at the beginning of the play (i.e. pre-snap); Play Execution shows Play Type, WP +/- (i.e. win probability gain/loss) and YDS +/- (i.e. yards gained/lost) at the end of the play. Line Chart: shows win probability over the course of the game. Big Play markers: outlined circles identify plays where win probability changed by 5% or more. Note: All Win Probability values are from the North Shore (NS) perspective, while YDS +/- is always from the perspective of the team on offense.

Early in the game, North Shore’s missed field goal (Play #24) was returned by Summer Creek for a touchdown – increasing their win probability by +26%.

But the most dramatic sequence came in the closing minutes.

After scoring to take a five-point lead (Play #150), North Shore successfully converted a two-point attempt to extend its lead to 7 (Play #151).

Then the momentum shifted.

Summer Creek returned the ensuing kickoff to North Shore’s 11-yard line (Play #152) and scored on the very next play (Play #153).

But a missed extra point (Play #154) left Summer Creek trailing by 1.

North Shore recovered the ensuing onside kick (Play #155), increasing their win probability by +28% and effectively sealing the victory.

Why does this matter?

A traditional box score tells us what happened. Win probability helps us understand how much it mattered.

That’s where analytics become useful – helping coaches identify, understand, and prepare for the moments that shape outcomes.