Week 21 – Lessons from the AFC & NFC Championship Games
Last week, we broke down key moments from the College Football Playoff National Championship game (Week 20). This week, we’re shifting focus to the NFL — specifically, the AFC and NFC Championship games.
We’re not here to second-guess. We’re here to highlight how analytics provide proactive context and clarity — especially in the moments that matter most.
AFC – Broncos vs Patriots
In the second quarter, with 9:28 remaining and the Broncos leading by 7, Denver faced a 4th & 1 from the Patriots’ 14-yard line.
This is a great example of why customizing the matchup matters — in this case adjusting for the quarterback : Jarrett Stidham instead of Bo Nix.
With Stidham at QB, on this 4th & 1 the decision edge for attempting a field goal is +2.7%.
If Nix had played, at 4th & 1 the decision edge for attempting a field goal drops to +0.6% — it’s a “coin flip”.
In both cases, analytics proactively recommend attempting the field goal – and with Stidham at QB, the FG recommendation is much stronger.
This is an example of where Varsity AI’s customization features add real value. Stress-test decisions by adjusting the Matchup Settings, to reflect game flow and personnel.
NFC – Rams vs Seahawks
In a pivotal 4th quarter series the Rams faced two critical 4th down decisions.
Scoreboard (i): Q4 9:42 | 4th & 1 Ball on SEA 26 | Rams trailing 27-31
Analytics:
- At 4th & 7 or less → Go for it (green bars).
- At 4th & 8 or more → Attempt a FG (yellow bars).
The Rams face 4th & 1 and go for it. (ii)
- Go for it → 36.0% chance to go on to win the game
- Attempt FG → 28.6% chance to go on to win the game
- +7.4% decision edge for going for it
- This is a “hard GO” — the best option by a margin of more than 5%
Scoreboard (i): Q4 6:29 | 4th & 4 Ball on SEA 6 | Rams trailing 27-31
Analytics:
- At 4th & 8 or less → Go for it (green bars).
- At 4th & 9 or more → Attempt a FG (yellow bars).
The Rams face 4th & 4 and go for it. (ii)
- Go for it → 35.9% chance to go on to win the game
- Attempt FG → 29.8% chance to go on to win the game
- +6.1% decision edge for going for it (value above 4th & 4 bar)
- This is also a “hard GO” — the best option by a margin of more than 5%
In both situations Coach McVay made the right decision — analytics supported both 4th down GO attempts, and the decision edges were significant.
Just keep in mind, the best decisions won’t always lead to successful conversions — but they do give your team the best chance to win. And that’s the goal.
The Takeaway
Analytics aren’t here to replace coaching. They’re here to support it, especially in high-pressure moments where every edge matters.
Ready to see it for yourself?
See the game differently!
Please reach out with questions. aj@varsity-ai.com