Week 16 - Georgia Class 6A High School Football Championship

Happy Holidays!

Last week we looked at in-game analytics with examples from college and the NFL (Week 15).

This week we look at post-game/self-scout analytics with examples from the Georgia Class 6A High School Football State Championship game between Buford and Carrollton.

The point is:

Win probability helps us better understand the impact of coaching decisions and play execution because it accounts for game context (i.e. down, distance, field position, time remaining, score, how the teams match up,  etc.). 

Below is the Varsity AI Win Probability chart from the game. Scroll over plays to get details.

Chart Overview

Scoreboard: the football icon reflects team on Offense. Play Details: shows Play # and Win Probability at the beginning of the play (i.e. pre-snap); Play Execution shows Play Type, WP +/- (i.e. win probability gain/loss) and YDS +/- (i.e. yards gained/lost) at the end of the play. Line Chart: shows win probability over the course of the game. *Note: All Win probability values are from the Buford perspective, while YDS +/- is always from the perspective of the team on Offense.

As a quick example, let’s focus on the Play Execution for plays #118 and #119. Through the standard lens of yards gained, these two 1-yard gains are the same. Through the lens of win probability these two 1-yard gains are very different because win probability captures each play’s impact on winning the game:  in this context #118 actually decreased Buford’s win probability by -1.6% and #119  increased Buford’s win probability by +16.5% (i.e. an 18.1% difference). This difference is the result of game context. 

The point is, by evaluating coaching decisions and play execution with win probability we get a better sense of what’s really driving our team’s wins and losses.  Long story short – it helps us coach better!

With that in mind, below is an analysis of yards gained, turnovers, and penalties of the game.

Win Probability vs Yards Gained/Play

Buford Offense

  • 1st downs (20): -3.8% in WP vs 2.1 yds/play
  • 2nd downs (20): +67.5% in WP vs 11.9 yds/play
  • 3rd downs (14): -51.1% vs 4.6 yds/play 

Summary: Buford performed well on 2nd down (also suggested by yards/play), but 3rd down is an area of concern/worthy of taking a closer look at (not necessarily indicated by yards/play).

Carrollton Offense

  • 1st downs (29): +0.2% in WP vs 4.5 yds/play
  • 2nd downs (22): -50.6% in WP vs 5.0 yds/play
  • 3rd downs (17): +16.8% in WP vs 3.9 yds/play

Summary: For Carrollton, 2nd down is an area of concern/worthy of taking a closer look (not necessarily indicated by yards/play)

Turnovers

Buford (1): -39% in WP

Summary: One play suggests an outlier event rather than a trend.

Carrollton (4): -68.4% in WP

Summary: All four turnovers occurred on pass plays, with costs of -9.2%, -13.5%, -20.6% and -25.1%. These numbers indicate the need to take a closer look – especially the last two.

Penalties

Buford (3): -7.0% in WP 

Summary: Buford played a fairly clean game.

Carrollton (4): -4.8% in WP

Summary: Carrollton played a fairly clean game.

These are just a few examples, from one game. This offseason, leverage win probability over multiple games to get a more compete picture of your team’s unique strengths and areas for improvement, so you can coach accordingly.

Thanks to Buford and Carrollton for delivering an instant classic – and congrats to Buford on winning the championship! 

Please reach out with questions or ideas on how/where to start.  aj@varsity-ai.com