Week 15 - NFL and NCAA 4th down decisions

This week, from the NFL we look at a few plays from the Bills vs Patriots game and from college, in a Salute to Service, we look at the final series in the Army vs Navy game.

The takeaway:

Coaching is complicated and the goal here is to show how analytics can help you make better informed and more proactive decisions. In other words, the context provided by analytics should support your coaching, and actually reduce complexity.

In these breakdowns we use analytics on 1st down to provide context for 4th down decisions.

Bills vs Patriots

Let’s look at two situations from this game.

Game State #1

Scoreboard (i): Q3  4:45 | 1st  & goal  Ball on NE 8 | BUF is trailing by 10 (14-24)

On this 1st down…

    • If BUF ends up facing 4th & 5 or less, going for it is the recommended decision (green bars) (ii).
    • If BUF ends up facing 4th & 6 or more, attempting a FG is the recommended decision (yellow bars).

BUF ends up scoring a TD on 3rd down. 

Do you think they would have gone for it on 4th down? Would you?

For context

    • At 4th & 1, it’s a “hard GO” — the best option by a margin of more than 5%
      • Go for it → 22.1% chance to go on to win the game
      • FG attempt → 16.2% chance to go on to win the game
      • +5.9% decision edge for going for it (value above 4th & 1 bar)

Game State #2

Scoreboard (i): Q4  12:55 | 1s & 10  Ball on BUF 48 | BUF trailing by 3 (10–17)

On this 1st down…

    • If BUF ends up facing 4th & 10 or less, going for it is the recommended decision (green bars).
    • BUF ends up facing 4th & 3 and going for it. Good call!
      • Go for it → 40% chance to go on to win the game
      • Punt → 36.9% chance to go on to win the game
      • +3.1% decision edge for going for it (value above 4th & 3 bar)  

Navy vs Army

Let’s look at the final series in this game.

Scoreboard (i): Q4  2:30 | 1st & 10  Ball on 50 | Navy leading by 1 (17–16)

On this 1st down…

    • If Navy ends up facing 4th & 6 or less, going for it is the recommended decision (green bars).
    • If Navy ends up facing 4th & 7 or more, punting is the recommended decision (red bars).
    • Navy ends up facing 4th & 1 and going for it. Good call!
      • Go for it → 72.3% chance to go on to win the game
      • Punt → 64.5% chance to go on to win the game
      • +7.8% decision edge for going for it (value above 4th & 1 bar)

Great game! Congrats to the Midshipmen and a thanks to all for their service!

Please reach out if you have questions about these plays or want to discuss any others.